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As part of a risk analysis, an auditor wishes to forecast the percentage growth in next month’s sales for a particular plant using the past 30 months" sales results. Significant changes in the organization affecting sales volumes were made within the last 9 months. The most effective analysis technique to use would be:
A. Unweighted moving average.
B. Exponential smoothing.
C. Queuing theory.
D. Linear regression analysis.
Correct Answer: B
Explanation/Reference:
Explanation:
Under exponential smoothing, each forecast equals the sum of the last observation times the smoothing constant, plus the last forecast times one minus the constant. Thus, exponential means that greater weight is placed on the most recent data, with the weights of all data falling off exponentially as the data age. This feature is important because of the organizational changes that affected sales volume.
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