A regional vendor for custom manufactured steel oil derricks is awarded a contract to design, manufacture, and install 40 offshore oil platforms. Installation of these derricks requires precision placement and stable seas for the transport and installation ships to properly install the deep water structure. It takes 65 days to transport the deep water structures for each platform from the manufacturing facility to the installation site at a cost of US$155,000 per day. The monsoon season runs from May to September each year and is a known risk for placement of the oil platforms. There is an incentive clause in the contract that will provide a USS1,500,000 payment, if all 40 platforms are in place and ready for use by 5 January 2016.

A regional vendor for custom manufactured steel oil derricks is awarded a contract to design, manufacture, and install 40 offshore oil platforms. Installation of these derricks requires precision placement and stable seas for the transport and installation ships to properly install the deep water structure. It takes 65 days to transport the deep water structures for each platform from the manufacturing facility to the installation site at a cost of US$155,000 per day. The monsoon season runs from May to September each year and is a known risk for placement of the oil platforms. There is an incentive clause in the contract that will provide a USS1,500,000 payment, if all 40 platforms are in place and ready for use by 5 January 2016.
What is the probability of receiving this incentive?
A. 35.0%
B. 42.9%
C. 44.5%
D. 47.5%

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